Monthly Outlook

The changeable and windy conditions will continue at first followed by some relief early next week.

Temperatures will be below average initially but should climb above average through early next week, with a peak in temperatures around the middle of the week.

Later on, drier, calmer and mostly warmer weather still seems more probable. Cooler solutions remain on the table though.

Cooler and unsettled initially

The high pressure ridge to the west of the UK is still ensuring a brisk west to north-westerly flow with embedded low pressure systems affecting many over the weekend. On Saturday there will be spells of heavy rain or showers, with the chance of intense thunderstorms in portions of southern England and perhaps southern Wales, along with squally winds and some larger hail possible in places.

On Sunday, showers are still expected to develop over the course of the day, but conditions could start to calm down from the west. Consistent with still a fairly cool airmass across the UK and so it could get quite chilly in places overnight.

Into next week, drier and calmer conditions could largely prevail. The latter is related to an emerging high pressure zone across southern parts of the country. Nevertheless, Scotland and Northern Ireland may see wetter and slightly windier conditions.

Around the middle part of next week, a stronger high pressure ridge might shift over the UK bringing briefly very warm conditions, especially to the south and south-east. There is growing uncertainty beyond the middle of next week and towards next weekend. However, weather forecast models agree to some extent that slightly cooler and more changeable conditions will try and move in from the south-west.

A similar pattern could continue through the weekend, followed by a calmer and drier phase developing as a high pressure zone forms. Temperatures should gradually drop but will remain above average for the time being.

Some diverging solutions

As we move into the second half of June, there could be a continuation of the weather pattern at the end of the previous week, i.e. a stronger high pressure signature appears to stay near the UK according to certain long-term forecast models. This may lead to largely dry and fine weather for many. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are still possible, though.

Nonetheless, things are going to change during this week. The high pressure may shift west or north-west of the UK causing a brisk and cool north-west to northerly flow, along with spells of showery rain. This solution is preferred by a majority of long-term weather models. Given the longer lead time, uncertainty remains in place.

Mostly warm and settled

With low pressure likely to be lingering somewhere between Iceland and Greenland or extending at times towards parts of Scandinavia, Scotland and Northern Ireland continue to be prone to slightly wetter, windier conditions towards the end of June and into July. However, most of the UK should experience drier and calmer weather. In addition, it could remain warmer than usual.

Therefore, there are currently few signs of a prolonged cool spell. Nevertheless, short-term fluctuations in general weather conditions are always possible. Long-term weather models continue to predict temperatures generally near the seasonal average.

The update on Tuesday should provide more information on the intensity and duration of the warm weather after the middle of next week and also show whether a cool snap will develop in the week after next.